I wonder what Ben Stein is saying nowadays about the impact of "subprime" on the economy and financial markets. Recall that about a year ago he did some back-of-napkin calculations and declared that the housing bubble bursting would cost us, roughly, nothing to even sneeze at. His idea was that subprime was a tiny fraction of the overall market, etc. etc.
He revisited that column a few months ago and declared himself a sage. After all, only one major bank had failed, the market had only fallen about 20%, and the economy hadn't been declared a recession yet even if we might actually be in one. Somehow this was a vindication of the column that pooh-poohed the idea that the housing crunch might have a real impact.
But what is he saying now? Not much, from the crickets I hear. His most recent column was about Rage Against The Machine guitarist Tom Morello.
My guess is that, when he gets around to talking about the current crisis, he will again declare himself sage...and then blame the meltdown on irrational behavior, such as shorting stock and the fear of runs on banks. In other words, nothing that should have been expected, and nothing that reflects the actual, tangible condition of the economy.
Update: Apparently his latest pronouncement is Rage Against The Treasury, or Henry Paulson, saying that the regulation of Wall Street is responsible for the disaster. Will he go on to say he was wrong? Or that he couldn't have known Paulson was going to bungle matters so much? I'd guess the latter.
Update 2: Stein has a brand new article, wherein he basically reaffirms that he was as right as he could possibly have been given the circumstances, that things are not as bad as they seem (because we aren't in the heart of a depression), and that Credit Default Swaps destroyed the financial sector. He's right on the last part, ignoring of course that the housing crash, which he denied was a big problem, triggered the CDS problems in the first place.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
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